Debunking the curse of the rainbow jersey – British Medical Journal research paper

Every Christmas, the British Medical Journal publish a series of less-serious papers which the peer-reviewed medical journal would not normally be associated with. In the past, these papers have covered such topics as Santa being a terrible role model for children, and the volumes of alcohol being consumed by James Bond.

One of the papers which they have published this year as part of their Christmas series is entitled: “Debunking the curse of the rainbow jersey: historical cohort study”

The objective of the study is to “understand the underlying mechanism of the “curse of the rainbow jersey,” the lack of wins that purportedly affects the current cycling world champion.”

As part of the research, the author Thomas Perneger, looks at the number of professional wins per season in the year when the target race was won (year 0) and in the two following years (years 1 and 2; the world champion wears the rainbow jersey in year 1).

Perneger, who is a clinical epidemiologist tests the following hypotheses: the “spotlight effect” (that is, people notice when a champion loses), the “marked man hypothesis” (the champion, who must wear a visible jersey, is marked closely by competitors), and “regression to the mean” (a successful season will be generally followed by a less successful one).

The study compares the results of professional cyclists who won the World Championship Road Race or the Tour of Lombardy in the years 1965-2013.

The conclusion from the research is that the cycling world champion is significantly less successful during the year when he wears the rainbow jersey than in the previous year, but this is best explained by regression to the mean, not by a curse.

You can read the paper here: http://www.bmj.com/content/351/bmj.h6304